Seasonal Climate Watch - January to May 2023

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely remain in this state during the remainder of the 2022/23 summer season and return to a neutral state during Autumn. The presence of a La Niña event usually has its strongest impact on rainfall during the mid-summer months. With the continued persistence of the La Niña event, there is a high chance that it will have its usual effect on South Africa, which is generally for above-normal rainfall and below-normal temperatures over the summer rainfall areas.

The multimodel rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country for all predicted seasons. Minimum temperatures are still expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide, however, maximum temperatures are expected to be below normal over most of the country during late summer (Jan-Feb-Mar) and early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).