Seasonal Climate Watch - November 2022 to March 2023

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely remain in this state during the remainder of 2022and early 2023. The presence of a La Niña event usually has its strongest impact on rainfall during the mid-summer months. With the continued strengthening of the La Niña event, there is a high chance that it will have its usual effect on South Africa, which is generally for above-normal rainfall and below-normal temperatures over the summer rainfall areas.

The multimodel rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country for all predicted seasons. Minimum temperatures are still expected to be above normal countrywide, however, maximum temperatures are expected to be below normal over large parts of the country during early-(Nov-Dec-Jan), mid-(Dec-Jan-Feb)and late-summer (Jan-Feb-Mar).

Above-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country during the early-mid- to late summer seasons, which is likely to bring positive impacts on crop and livestock production. Therefore, the relevant decision-makers are encouraged to advise farmers to prepare land for planting, to practice measures such as soil and water conservation, proper water harvesting and storage, establishing good drainage systems, and other appropriate farming practices.